Ozone Hole Fix Worsens Global Warming

by Heidi Stevenson

20 July 2009

When things are done on a large scale, the law of unintentional consequences often applies. We invented air conditioning—and what a blessing it is—but it led to a life-threatening hole in the ozone layer. So, we figured out how to fix it by banning CFCs and other ozone-depleting chemicals, and requiring a switch to HFCs. But they've turned out to be one of the very worst greenhouse gases.

At this time, HFCs contribute less than one percent towards climate change. Unfortunately, though, their use is growing rapidly. The most conservative predictions are that HFCs will increase to a 7-12 percent contribution to global warming. The problem is that HFCs are far more potent than CO₂, some types being thousands of times for potent. Even a small increase in HFC use can have an enormous impact on climate change.

It appears to be inevitable that HFC use will increase. Though most CFCs have been phased out, the process has barely begun for several other ozone depleters, the HCFCs. The Montreal Protocol treaty, which defines the process, doesn't end HCFC use until 2030.

The IPCC estimates that HFCs will be triple their 2002 level in 2015. However, the EIA expects HFC emissions to be significantly higher. They report that studies demonstrate that continuation of HFC emissions will result in them becoming as much as 45% of all greenhouse gas emissions by 2050⁽¹⁾.

The United Nations' Executive Director of their Environment Program, Achim Steiner, said, "Action to freeze and then reduce this group of gases could buy the world the equivalent of a decade's worth of C02 emissions."

According to EIA's Global Environment Campaigner, Fionnuala Walravens, "Left unchecked, HFC use will prove fatal to domestic and international efforts to arrest and reverse climate change. The Montreal Protocol has more than twenty years experience of working with the industrial sectors that are now shifting to HFCs, and is uniquely suited to take on the urgent task of controlling and phasing out HFCs."

Awareness of HFCs' Impact on Global Warming Is Not New

As Greenpeace's 1999 position paper⁽²⁾ on HFCs (along with PFCs and SF6) and global warming makes clear, this problem has been known to exist for at least 10 years. Greenpeace submitted this paper to a joint expert meeting of the IPCC and TEAC in May 1999. The paper documents the use of a safer alternative for most HFC applications, hydrocarbons, and advised:

Clearly, if credible estimates indicate that the emissions of HFCs/PFCs and SF6 are likely to contribute in any discernable manner to global warming, and if there are safer and technologically reliable alternatives, then the use of these substances must be eliminated as soon as those alternatives are available. That is the only responsible and sensible course of action.

Montreal Protocol

The Montreal Protocol has been a resounding success in tackling ozone depletion. This planet and life threatening problem was honestly addressed. Solutions have been effective and the hole in the ozone is disappearing. It demonstrates that, where there's a will, there truly is a way. That's the heartening part of this tale. Sadly, that will has apparently been lost.

At the Executive Committee G8 meeting of July 2008, a commitment was made to resolve the climate change problem through the Montreal Protocol. The EIA issued its arguments for this month's Geneva meeting of all 195 member state signatories to the Montreal Protocol⁽³⁾. In its conclusion is the statement, "There simply is no other comparable prospect for climate mitigation by the international community that remotely compares in terms of practical or fiscal ease and achievability."

In other words, this problem is readily resolvable. The system for handling it is already in place. All that's required is the will. The 58th Executive Committee Meeting was held this month, 6-10 July. Where's the reporting on it? Had there been a press presence, perhaps the Executive Committee would have found the resolve to do take on the HFC challenge. Instead, the best it could muster was its announcement that "Iraq sets sights on compliance with international ozone protection treaty".

The Fix

As so often happens with technological fixes, a new and worse problem springs up. Fixing the ozone layer—one of the modern world's finest moments—had the unforeseen effect of worsening global warming. However, the system put in place to solve the ozone problem is still there, and it has the ability to deal with the even more severe problem it created. When the Montreal Protocol was discussed and put into place, news media were all over it. Newspapers and the airwaves were filled with it. Its implementation in 1989, 30 years ago, was one of humanity's finest moments. And it worked!

We humans aren't perfect. We make mistakes, and sometimes they're hidden inside our greatest triumphs. That's what's happened with the Montreal Protocol. Nonetheless, we have no option but to go forward and try to fix what we've wrought. We know our error. We replaced CFCs with the wrong chemicals, HFCs. So now, we must replace HFCs with something that doesn't heat our planet. The method for doing this is set in place. All we need is the will.

Do we have the will?